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Auto Prediction

Auto Prediction is OpenAlice's pre-alpha, Agent-native prediction-market research activity. It runs inside one durable Workspace created from an exact release of Auto Prediction. OpenAlice provides native coding-agent Sessions, collaboration, Inbox, source provenance, and a managed route into the Workspace-owned Studio.

Auto Prediction is a research surface, not an execution venue. Its current workflow develops and challenges evidence-backed hypotheses; it does not send orders or bypass OpenAlice's separate Trading as Git approval boundary.

Product walkthroughOpen an Auto Prediction discovery desk in Studio
Open an Auto Prediction discovery desk in Studio

Move from the native Prediction activity into the Workspace-owned Studio, where market coverage, preflight, evidence, counterevidence, and research state remain visible together.

Initialize the desk

Open Prediction from the Beta group in the activity navigation. Before the first research Session, initialize one Auto Prediction Workspace or explicitly select an existing compatible desk as the default.

  • The composer never guesses the latest Workspace.
  • Sending a prompt never creates a new desk as a side effect.
  • Once initialized, new research starts or continues a native coding-agent Session inside that selected repository.
  • Changing the default Workspace remains an explicit, low-frequency action.

The current approved source is Auto Prediction v0.1.2 at commit d6c9447cab29898a6eb5fa06be3598b8474cc02f. Earlier qualified releases remain available for explicit rollback and source-history work. Versions are immutable creation inputs, never floating branches.

Research and Studio

The repository root is the research desk. Its coding agent reads the upstream AGENTS.md, inspects venue evidence, develops semantic hypotheses, runs the repository's checks, and preserves positive and negative evidence in the formats owned by Auto Prediction.

Open Studio beside New research after a default Workspace exists. OpenAlice starts the command declared by the repository's harness.json, allocates exact loopback ports, waits for its readiness path, and embeds the ready app through an opaque managed Surface URL. HTTP, server-sent events, and WebSockets pass through that route without exposing an arbitrary local-port proxy. The Studio remains a separate origin and owns its own frontend, APIs, campaigns, evidence model, internal workers, and SQLite state.

The Studio may become ready while its initial market catalog refresh continues in the background. OpenAlice shows distinct starting, failed, and ready states, with Refresh, Restart, Logs, and Open separately controls.

If source dependencies are missing, OpenAlice does not install them silently. Choose Set up with Agent to open a prefilled Quick Start task, review the Agent, credential, model, and effort, and let that Session prepare the Workspace before restarting Studio.

Source and provenance

Initialization retains upstream Git ancestry and records the exact approved source in:

.alice/harness-source.json

Source updates are never automatic. Settings → Harness can preview a newer verified release, fetch its exact commit, validate the manifest, show changed paths, and preview the Git merge. Apply requires the same reviewed digest and refuses active Sessions, active Studio processes, conflicting tracked changes, incompatible manifests, or unresolved conflicts. A successful apply preserves research history in a no-fast-forward merge commit and records a receipt.

Optional Show unverified Harness releases discovers the newest stable upstream SemVer tag that is absent from OpenAlice's verified catalog. Prereleases are excluded, the candidate is visibly marked unverified, and it still requires an explicit preview and apply.

Ownership boundaries

  • Auto Prediction owns prediction-research truth, campaigns, evidence, application state, and Studio business APIs.
  • The coding agent owns dependency preparation, repository iteration, and the research artifacts it creates.
  • OpenAlice owns Workspace and Session lifecycle, collaboration, Inbox, source receipts, managed Studio routing, and bounded process supervision.
  • Harness processes bind only to the exact loopback host and ports OpenAlice supplies and suppress automatic browser opening in managed mode.
  • Restart removes the old route and process tree before publishing the new generation. Optional Harness processes recover with capped backoff, but source versions never upgrade by themselves.
  • UTA and Trading as Git remain the only route to broker state and reviewed trading operations.

Next steps