Auto Prediction
Auto Prediction is OpenAlice's pre-alpha, Agent-native prediction-market research activity. It runs inside one durable Workspace created from an exact release of Auto Prediction. OpenAlice provides native coding-agent Sessions, collaboration, Inbox, source provenance, and a managed route into the Workspace-owned Studio.
Auto Prediction is a research surface, not an execution venue. Its current workflow develops and challenges evidence-backed hypotheses; it does not send orders or bypass OpenAlice's separate Trading as Git approval boundary.
Move from the native Prediction activity into the Workspace-owned Studio, where market coverage, preflight, evidence, counterevidence, and research state remain visible together.
Initialize the desk
Open Prediction from the Beta group in the activity navigation. Before the first research Session, initialize one Auto Prediction Workspace or explicitly select an existing compatible desk as the default.
- The composer never guesses the latest Workspace.
- Sending a prompt never creates a new desk as a side effect.
- Once initialized, new research starts or continues a native coding-agent Session inside that selected repository.
- Changing the default Workspace remains an explicit, low-frequency action.
The current approved source is Auto Prediction v0.1.2 at commit
d6c9447cab29898a6eb5fa06be3598b8474cc02f. Earlier qualified releases remain
available for explicit rollback and source-history work. Versions are immutable
creation inputs, never floating branches.
Research and Studio
The repository root is the research desk. Its coding agent reads the upstream
AGENTS.md, inspects venue evidence, develops semantic hypotheses, runs the
repository's checks, and preserves positive and negative evidence in the
formats owned by Auto Prediction.
Open Studio beside New research after a default Workspace exists.
OpenAlice starts the command declared by the repository's harness.json, waits
for its own readiness signal, and embeds the resulting loopback-only surface.
The Studio remains a separate origin and owns its own frontend, APIs, campaigns,
evidence model, internal workers, and SQLite state.
Source and provenance
Initialization retains upstream Git ancestry and records the exact approved source in:
.alice/harness-source.json
Source updates are never automatic. Preview validates an exact version and commit, checks the Harness manifest, and previews the Git merge. Apply preserves the Workspace's committed research history and refuses active Sessions, active Studio processes, incompatible manifests, or unresolved conflicts.
Ownership boundaries
- Auto Prediction owns prediction-research truth, campaigns, evidence, application state, and Studio business APIs.
- The coding agent owns dependency preparation, repository iteration, and the research artifacts it creates.
- OpenAlice owns Workspace and Session lifecycle, collaboration, Inbox, source receipts, managed Studio routing, and bounded process supervision.
- UTA and Trading as Git remain the only route to broker state and reviewed trading operations.
Next steps
- Workspaces — Understand the durable repository and Session model.
- Templates — Review source-backed Harness creation.
- Inbox — Publish a durable human-facing research delivery.
- Trading as Git — Keep any later trading intent behind review.